The Government wants ISPs to stop illegal downloads.
This is so wrong headed it’s hard to see what on earth they’re thinking of. Presumably they envisage a technology solution, which is pretty typical amongst people like government ministers - hey well my computer can tell when I’m writing a letter and show me a paperclip, so surely it must be able to stop copyright infringement!
Here’s a few issues that I think are pretty much insoluble:
How can you tell what content infringes copyright?
There’s a couple of options here. Blacklisting known infringers sounds like a good idea, but it’s got problems.
Sites such as The PirateBay don’t themselves distribute copyright material. They host only the (non-copyright) torrent tracker, and the downloaders all share the content amongst themselves. These downloaders are on moving IP addresses and come and go pretty randomly, and are all over the world and the UK.
So who do you blacklist?
A team of people inspecting torrent sites for suspicious material, and then tracking the torrents, finding the IP addresses of all peers and then adding them to a rolling blacklist that’s used by all IPs might work. Well work as in generate an actual list of blacklistable IP addresses. This is the sort of technique the Chinese use, with quite a lot of success. There will be a lot of collatoral damage though, and in a free society that’s very difficult to justify. And justify it, in court, they are going to have to do.
Blacklisting The PirateBay sounds good, and is much easier, but new torrent sites will pop up all the time. Again the judiciary will have a very dim view of arbitrary censorship of people who have been convicted of no crime. I don’t see this method working beyond the first few lawsuits.
Alternatively they might imagine some sort of fingerprinting. Every stream will be examined on the fly, perhaps for the evil bit. With a bit of work it’s possible to probably identify some copyright work using fingerprinting, with quite a few mistakes. Of course, this is defeated utterly by encryption. Right now torrents aren’t encrypted, but I think it will take approximately 1.2 nanoseconds for everyone to move to encrypted torrents if something like this comes in.
Some ISPs might go as far as blocking bittorrent. This is relatively easy to do, and much harder to avoid, however loads of services use bittorrent now that are perfectly legal. Even the BBC’s own iPlayer uses the same sort of technology, and I can see how popular banning that would be.
How do you know it’s working?
They are threatening to punish ISPs unless they “do something”. Precisely how are they going to decide who to punish? Is there going to be some sort of quota - “you have banned 50 users this week, you have unlocked an achievement!”. Sorry, that should be “50 customers”.
There just isn’t a reasonable success metric, and ISPs are not going to voluntarily ban their own customers. They’ll kick and scream and resist wherever they can, so whatever .gov.uk comes up with is going to have to be enforceable in court. That means metrics that are clear, fair and measurable. I just don’t believe such a thing exists.
Ultimately this is just the content exploitation industries failing to address the fact that their business model was temporary. It relied on a particular coincidence of technological limitations and market opportunities. This has changed and now they are about as useful as a bicycle to the proverbial fish.
I just can’t see this happening without a huge amount of damage to the government, and the whole idea being binned in the end. I just hope they aren’t dumb enough to do it.
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